It is likely that Republicans will adapt, and that the libertarian wing will become more dominant within the party. It is hard to see how social conservatives and libertarians could find common ground on the issue of gay marriage. While Ron Paul has successfully drawn libertarian voters into the Republican party, while maintaining a pro-life stance, his stance on gay marriage is a band-aid. Kicking the issue back to the states only postpones a battle. Eventually young libertarians will want to know how the Republican party will address this issue at the state level. That is where the fireworks come in. How do Republicans find common ground between social conservatives and libertarians on gay marriage? They can't. Social conservatives will simply be left homeless on the issue in a party that will eventually evolve in the same way the party and Sean Hannity are evolving on immigration reform. Ironically it is social conservatives that are leading the way on this other evolution, since they see the future of there churches tied to the rising number of hispanics in the United States. Where will they go? Nowhere, they will stay in the Republican party and evolve or they will stay in the Republican party as a constituency tied to that party by an issue that commands their loyalty. The idea that the legal sanction of gay marriage by a state could ever compare with the issue of abortion is absurd. It's the view of social conservatives that abortion is murder. There is no backing away from an issue that carries the magnitude of moral concern that this issue does for them.
Other constituencies are in play here, but not to the same degree. America no longer accepts Neoconservative appeals to military adventurism or nation building. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the Republican party, where the voices gaining ascendancy in the party are vociferously opposed to the kind of hawkish foreign policy represented by John McCain. Neo-conservativism died with the Bush administration, John McCain and Lindsey Graham are museum pieces in regards to these issues. Fiscal conservatism will have a home in the party, and like capitalism more generally, it is fluid enough to adapt to a changing environment. This brings us to the Tea Party. While discussion of these other constituencies seems to be deceptively clean in the kinds of divisions it involves, the Tea party is a phenomena that doesn't map onto this landscape in any clean or explicit manner. It is probably more representative of the reality of how these different groups relate, in terms of that ambiguity. Voters are poorly represented as a block in the way that the kind analysis above is dependent. The Tea party in some ways acts as a microcosm for the kind of debate that is occurring within the Republican party at large. Social conservatives within the Tea party battle libertarians within it over the direction it has as a movement. While some of the concerns ostensibly motivating the Tea party ought to concern all of us, there are other issues at play here besides whether or not our government is going bankrupt. The most obvious concern has to do with their name: (T)axed (E)nough (A)lready. While many of the most vocal leaders of that movement represent a move to drastically shrink entitlement programs, the vast majority of it's members simply want them to be reformed so that they remain solvent. The fact that they don't write it on their homemade signs doesn't make this point any less real. Ironically the vast majority don't even want cuts to Medicare. The problem with the Tea Party is that its movement doesn't form a coherent direction in policy when you consider the positions held by its members and the positions expressed by its champions. It's fine when you want to oppose "Obamacare" to hold together this kind of group. What happens when a program like Medicare, that pays out three times what is paid in, ends up implementing reforms like means testing? The bigger problem here is that the rise of voices like Rand Paul that would seem to represent the more youthful adaptation towards libertarianism, is accompanied with all of the baggage that is holding the Republican party back in other ways that I mentioned earlier involving issues that directly impact hispanics and women. Voices in the Tea Party represented by Ted Cruz call for measures that the rank and file may like the sound of, but only until their benefits are cut. Ted Cruz is becoming one of the standard bearers for the Tea Party, and he seems more than happy to cultivate extremism where ever it is found on the right. As long as the direction here is to harden ideological divisions that are unable to do anything other then obstruct legislation, or governance in general, then the division between those advocating these stances and those voters who decide who holds office will only widen.
There is a civil war occurring here within the Republican party, but it isn't only one set of interests against another over the soul of the party. It is to a large part comprised of two conflicts. One war between more libertarian elements that represent the parties future and another that represents its social conservative wing. It is also a conflict between one set of voices within the party that comprises a cynical establishment and another set of voices trying to purge the party of ideological impurity. The problem between these two groups is that neither represent the party's future. A third voice is beginning to form here, but only issue by issue, within different members who find themselves drawn towards what is problematic on a host of other issues. Marco Rubio is forward looking in many ways on the issue of immigration, and yet he balances that effort by pandering to that ideological purity on other issues. Rand Paul has lead the way in overturning the Neoconservative wing within the party, but only because he is ideologically credible to more extreme elements in other ways.
Democrats could just as easily find themselves here. If they don't come to the table over reforms and get serious about making entitlement programs solvent then they will. It is only because of some of the issues I mentioned earlier, that Republicans have found themselves in the wilderness. Both parties seem driven towards ideological excess. There are two main reasons any party dwarfs another. One party learns how to express its core values in ways that represents some of the appeal in the values expressed by its opposition and eventually overwhelms them. The other reason a party succeeds is because its competition implodes. Democrats shouldn't kid themselves here, it obvious that one these parties in a civil war and another is simply better at treading water at the moment.
